Future Studies - Dr Michael Atchia
Future studies are methodologies for studying change and forecasting the future.
Since the future, by definition, is not yet reality, scientists wishing to 'study the future' have has to develop a number of methodologies that are different from traditional scientific methodologies for studying the present and the past. These methodologies range from "mathematical and quantitative" (left brain methods) to visionary, creative, intuitive (right brain methods) and various combinations in between.
Methodologies:
1. Trend extrapolation - used in population studies - Project past trends into the future, for some given period of time. Assumes that the future will follow past trends.
2. Computer modelling - Shows how various variables in different areas of interact with each other, within a whole systems context, over time. Some computer models (e.g. availability of fuels on planet earn over the next 50 years) are strongly influencing the price of various fuels, especially petrol.
3. Simulations and games: An attempt to take certain variables from "reality" in some area and create a computer model or game stituation in which one can see how those variables might interact with each other over time. e.g. fishing vessels and watching the long term effects on the yield of fish, until the fishery crashes!
4. Technological forecasting: An attempt to forecast what technological breakthroughs and developments ae most likely to occur in future and when they are likely to occur. Wasthe CD, the digital camera, the mobile phone forecasted? In this age where technology is a major driving force for change, keeping on top of the latest developements in technology is essential for economic success.
5. Technological impact assessment: looks at how new technologies are likely on society or the environment.
6. Environmental impact assessment: looks at how new developments will impact on environment. EIAs are legal requirements for many types of building projects in Mauritius.
7. Social impact assessment: looks at how new developments in some area will, in short and long-term impact on society on specific local communities.
8. Future wheels and scenarios : A group brainstorming technique to quickly determine what some of the first, second, and third order consequences might be, 'if' some event were to occur in the future -eg - tsunami, nuclear explosion, a major oil spill off the coast of Mauritius - Everything follows from this event, placed at the centre of 'the future's wheel', considering best case, worse case, most probable case scenarios.
9. Science fiction: A possible story of what could happen in some future social or world situation. Science fiction does not claim to predict the future, but some imaginative stories later become a reality. 2 e.g. Jules Verne - predicted travel to the moon and to the centre of the earth - Arthur Clarke - space travel, the communication satellite etc . + George Orwell's - novel 1984 predicted accurately the methods later used by the KGB, STASI, M15, CIA
10. Intuition & Intuitive forecasting: A "right brain" "ala li la " experience in which you suddenly 'know' something to be true, or you suddenly see patterns and relationships between things that you didn't see before. Intuition is another way of knowing, a "sixth sense" beyond the standard five senses. Intuition is important in future studies because in a world in which change is occurring so fast, and one does not always have time to get all the information that one would like before one must make a decision about what to do, one must often rely on one's intuition to fill in the missing pieces and make a decision. Intuition is also the source of creativity and new-ideas-in whatever type of work one is in. Artists, scientists, business executives and statesmen - in fact all leaders, in whatever the area - all use their intuition to see and plan the future: the successful ones are those who consult all the above method, not just relying on "guest-work".
11. Relevance trees: A way to map out the sequence of events and in what order, that are necessary to get from where we are now to where we want to be in 2010, 2020, 2050, 2100 etc as the end goal.
12. Complex analysis : This is a method for doing complex planning of great numbers of people and subcontractors working on a very larege project, such as the space programme. First developed for use by NASA in planning how to get to the moon (and they succeeded!) Also used, under different forms, in engineering, business and financila management and now by some governments! It is a way to map all the different pathways that must be successfully followed from start at point "A" to finish at pint "B" which is the desired goal. One also calculates, from all these pathways, what the "critical path" is. For any event along any given pathway, one adds estimates of personnel, time, budget, equipment, structures etc needed to successfully carry out the activity. If a particular pathway, especially the "critical path", starts getting behind, one can then move additional resouces to that pathway, to correct the problem. A complex world such as ours often needs complex situations. What remains simple is the human endeavour behind.
Since the future, by definition, is not yet reality, scientists wishing to 'study the future' have has to develop a number of methodologies that are different from traditional scientific methodologies for studying the present and the past. These methodologies range from "mathematical and quantitative" (left brain methods) to visionary, creative, intuitive (right brain methods) and various combinations in between.
Methodologies:
1. Trend extrapolation - used in population studies - Project past trends into the future, for some given period of time. Assumes that the future will follow past trends.
2. Computer modelling - Shows how various variables in different areas of interact with each other, within a whole systems context, over time. Some computer models (e.g. availability of fuels on planet earn over the next 50 years) are strongly influencing the price of various fuels, especially petrol.
3. Simulations and games: An attempt to take certain variables from "reality" in some area and create a computer model or game stituation in which one can see how those variables might interact with each other over time. e.g. fishing vessels and watching the long term effects on the yield of fish, until the fishery crashes!
4. Technological forecasting: An attempt to forecast what technological breakthroughs and developments ae most likely to occur in future and when they are likely to occur. Wasthe CD, the digital camera, the mobile phone forecasted? In this age where technology is a major driving force for change, keeping on top of the latest developements in technology is essential for economic success.
5. Technological impact assessment: looks at how new technologies are likely on society or the environment.
6. Environmental impact assessment: looks at how new developments will impact on environment. EIAs are legal requirements for many types of building projects in Mauritius.
7. Social impact assessment: looks at how new developments in some area will, in short and long-term impact on society on specific local communities.
8. Future wheels and scenarios : A group brainstorming technique to quickly determine what some of the first, second, and third order consequences might be, 'if' some event were to occur in the future -eg - tsunami, nuclear explosion, a major oil spill off the coast of Mauritius - Everything follows from this event, placed at the centre of 'the future's wheel', considering best case, worse case, most probable case scenarios.
9. Science fiction: A possible story of what could happen in some future social or world situation. Science fiction does not claim to predict the future, but some imaginative stories later become a reality. 2 e.g. Jules Verne - predicted travel to the moon and to the centre of the earth - Arthur Clarke - space travel, the communication satellite etc . + George Orwell's - novel 1984 predicted accurately the methods later used by the KGB, STASI, M15, CIA
10. Intuition & Intuitive forecasting: A "right brain" "ala li la " experience in which you suddenly 'know' something to be true, or you suddenly see patterns and relationships between things that you didn't see before. Intuition is another way of knowing, a "sixth sense" beyond the standard five senses. Intuition is important in future studies because in a world in which change is occurring so fast, and one does not always have time to get all the information that one would like before one must make a decision about what to do, one must often rely on one's intuition to fill in the missing pieces and make a decision. Intuition is also the source of creativity and new-ideas-in whatever type of work one is in. Artists, scientists, business executives and statesmen - in fact all leaders, in whatever the area - all use their intuition to see and plan the future: the successful ones are those who consult all the above method, not just relying on "guest-work".
11. Relevance trees: A way to map out the sequence of events and in what order, that are necessary to get from where we are now to where we want to be in 2010, 2020, 2050, 2100 etc as the end goal.
12. Complex analysis : This is a method for doing complex planning of great numbers of people and subcontractors working on a very larege project, such as the space programme. First developed for use by NASA in planning how to get to the moon (and they succeeded!) Also used, under different forms, in engineering, business and financila management and now by some governments! It is a way to map all the different pathways that must be successfully followed from start at point "A" to finish at pint "B" which is the desired goal. One also calculates, from all these pathways, what the "critical path" is. For any event along any given pathway, one adds estimates of personnel, time, budget, equipment, structures etc needed to successfully carry out the activity. If a particular pathway, especially the "critical path", starts getting behind, one can then move additional resouces to that pathway, to correct the problem. A complex world such as ours often needs complex situations. What remains simple is the human endeavour behind.
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